JPMorgan Warns Fertilizer Shortages Could Trigger Global Food Crisis in 2027

A severe shortage of fertilizer could trigger a global food supply crisis as early as next year, according to a warning from JPMorgan, as rising demand and disruptions to supply chains put increasing pressure on agricultural markets.

The bank’s warning highlights a major vulnerability in the global food system: unlike crude oil, fertilizer has no widely maintained strategic reserve that countries can rely on when supplies become constrained.

Fertilizer is critical to modern agriculture because nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphate and potash help farmers maintain crop yields. A prolonged shortage could therefore increase production costs, reduce harvests and push food prices higher, particularly in countries that depend heavily on imported agricultural inputs.

The concern is particularly significant because fertilizer markets are already exposed to geopolitical tensions, energy costs, trade restrictions and disruptions affecting major producing regions. Nitrogen fertilizer production, for example, relies heavily on natural gas, meaning higher energy prices can quickly translate into higher fertilizer costs.

A major supply disruption could have consequences far beyond the agricultural sector. Farmers facing higher input costs may reduce fertilizer application, potentially lowering crop yields. At the same time, countries could compete for limited supplies, increasing prices and placing additional pressure on food-importing nations.

The absence of a strategic fertilizer stockpile makes the situation more difficult. While governments maintain emergency petroleum reserves to cushion major oil supply disruptions, there is no equivalent global system for storing fertilizer at a scale capable of protecting farmers from a prolonged shortage.

For developing economies, the potential impact could be particularly severe. Higher fertilizer prices can make farming less profitable for small-scale producers and ultimately increase the cost of staple foods for consumers.

JPMorgan’s warning therefore comes at a time when policymakers and agricultural producers are already paying close attention to the resilience of global food supply chains.

If fertilizer availability deteriorates significantly in 2027, the consequences could extend from farm input prices to food inflation, household affordability and food security across multiple regions.

The warning does not mean a global food crisis is certain to occur next year, but it underscores how dependent the world’s food system remains on a stable supply of agricultural nutrients—and how quickly a fertilizer shock could ripple through the global economy.