Oil Prices Slide Over $2 as OPEC+ Accelerates Output Hikes

Oil prices tumbled more than $2 per barrel in Asian trading on Monday, as OPEC+ moves to ramp up production, fueling fresh concerns about an oversupplied market grappling with unclear demand prospects.

By 06:53 GMT, Brent crude futures had dropped $2.21, or 3.61%, trading at $59.08 a barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped $2.29, or 3.93%, to $56.00 a barrel. Both benchmarks hit their lowest levels since April 9 during early trading.

The selloff follows OPEC+’s decision to increase oil output by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June—marking the second straight month of accelerated production hikes.

With this move, the group’s total output increases for April through June will reach 960,000 bpd, or 44% of the 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts agreed upon since 2022, according to Reuters calculations.

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“The May 3 OPEC+ decision to raise production quotas another 411,000 bpd for June adds to the market expectation that the global supply/demand balance is moving to a surplus,” said Tim Evans, founder of Evans on Energy, in a research note.

Sources within OPEC+ suggest that the group may completely unwind its voluntary production cuts by October 2025—especially if member nations like Iraq and Kazakhstan fail to meet their quota obligations. Reportedly, Saudi Arabia is pressuring the group to speed up this process to enforce compliance among lagging members.

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Adding to the bearish sentiment, the 6-month Brent price spread flipped into contango for the first time since December 2023—meaning near-term prices are cheaper than future contracts, a sign that the market expects supply to exceed demand in the short term.

In response to these developments, several financial institutions have revised their oil price forecasts downward:

• Barclays cut its Brent crude forecast by $4 to $66 per barrel for 2025, and by $2 to $60 for 2026.
• ING now expects Brent to average $65 in 2025, down from its earlier estimate of $70.

Barclays also revised its supply projections upward, estimating an additional 290,000 bpd of supply in 2025, and 110,000 bpd more in 2026, due to higher OPEC+ output and slightly slower U.S. production growth.

“The oil market is facing significant demand uncertainty amid global tariff risks,” noted ING analysts led by Warren Patterson. “This shift in OPEC+ policy only adds more volatility on the supply side.”

With OPEC+ pushing more barrels into the market and demand growth facing headwinds from macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, oil markets may remain under pressure in the coming months.