Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production Expected to Exceed 1.7 Million Barrels Per Day in H2 2026

Nigeria’s crude oil production could rise above 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of 2026, as improved security, stronger upstream investment and efforts to reduce oil theft support a recovery in output.

The projection was contained in the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) 2026 Half-Year Outlook, which points to improving conditions in the country’s oil sector.

The outlook comes as Nigeria has already recorded a significant improvement in production this year. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that combined crude oil and condensate output reached 1.735 million bpd in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth and the highest crude production level in 74 months.

However, production eased in July. NUPRC figures showed that crude oil output fell to about 1.505 million bpd, while crude oil and condensate combined averaged approximately 1.67 million bpd. Despite the decline, Nigeria remained above its 1.5 million bpd OPEC crude production quota for the third consecutive month.

NESG expects production to strengthen again during the second half of the year, supported by improvements in security across oil-producing areas and renewed investment in upstream activities. The resumption of oil block licensing could also encourage additional exploration and production projects.

Reducing crude theft and pipeline vandalism remains particularly important. For years, insecurity and attacks on oil infrastructure have prevented Nigeria from fully utilising its production capacity. Recent improvements in surveillance and security operations have, however, contributed to the recovery in output.

Higher production could provide some relief for government finances, especially if crude prices remain relatively strong. NESG expects international oil prices to average between $70 and $80 per barrel during the second half of 2026, above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.

The combination of higher production and stronger crude prices could therefore increase government oil revenues and provide additional fiscal space at a time when Nigeria continues to face significant funding pressures.

Still, exceeding 1.7 million bpd consistently will depend on whether recent improvements can be sustained. July’s decline from the June peak shows that production remains vulnerable to operational and security challenges.

Nigeria’s 2026 budget assumes crude production of around 1.84 million bpd, meaning output above 1.7 million bpd would represent meaningful progress but would still leave the country short of its official target.

For Africa’s largest oil producer, the focus now is not simply on reaching 1.7 million bpd once, but on maintaining higher production levels consistently. If investment, security and infrastructure continue to improve, the second half of 2026 could mark another important step in Nigeria’s efforts to rebuild its oil production capacity.