EU Proposes 15-Year Probation for New Members to Prevent Democratic Backsliding

The European Commission has proposed a new 15-year safeguard period for future European Union member states, giving the bloc stronger powers to respond if a newly admitted country seriously breaches democratic principles or EU rules.

Under the proposal, new members could face restrictions on EU funding and, in the most serious cases, suspension of their voting rights in the EU Council during the first 15 years after accession. The measures are designed to address concerns about democratic backsliding and prevent a new member state from using its voting power to obstruct the wider EU’s decision-making process.

European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos directly referenced the experience of Hungary under Viktor Orbán when explaining the proposed safeguards.

“No more Viktor Orbán,” Kos said, arguing that the EU needs faster mechanisms than the existing Article 7 procedure when a member state moves against the rule of law, democracy or the bloc’s values.

Article 7 of the EU treaties already allows the bloc to suspend certain rights, including voting rights, when a member state commits a serious and persistent breach of EU values. However, the procedure has never resulted in the ultimate suspension of a country’s voting rights.

The Commission’s proposed mechanism would therefore provide an additional safeguard specifically for future members. The measures could be triggered by serious breaches of EU values and the principle of sincere cooperation, with voting-rights suspension reserved for the most serious cases.

The proposal is part of a broader plan to prepare the EU for possible enlargement involving countries such as Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine. The Commission is also proposing a more gradual integration of candidate countries into areas such as energy, transport, digital policy and defence before full membership.

However, the 15-year safeguard is not yet EU law. The proposal must be considered and approved by the bloc’s existing 27 member states before it can take effect.

The plan has already generated concern among some EU candidate countries, which fear that the safeguards could create a form of second-class membership or give existing members excessive political leverage over newcomers. The Commission, however, says the measures would be temporary, targeted, reversible and subject to regular review.

The proposed changes reflect the EU’s attempt to balance continued enlargement with concerns that future members should maintain democratic standards and cooperate with the wider bloc after joining.