Nearly Half of French Muslims and Jews Would Consider Leaving if Marine Le Pen Wins 2027 Election, Survey Finds

Nearly half of Muslim and Jewish respondents in France say they would consider leaving the country if far-right politician Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 presidential election, according to a new survey by French polling institute Ifop.

The survey, commissioned by French magazine Marianne, found that 46 per cent of Muslim respondents and 44 per cent of Jewish respondents would consider moving abroad under a Le Pen presidency. By comparison, 21 per cent of the general population said they would contemplate leaving France if she won the election.

The findings highlight concerns among religious minorities about discrimination, religious freedom and the potential direction of French politics ahead of the 2027 presidential vote.

The survey was conducted online between September 25 and September 30, 2026, among 9,689 adults living in mainland France. It examined public attitudes towards religion, secularism, discrimination and the possible consequences of a Marine Le Pen victory.

Among Muslim respondents, 46 per cent said they would consider leaving France if Le Pen became president. Of that group, 20 per cent said they would definitely consider making the move.

Jewish respondents expressed similarly significant concerns, with 44 per cent saying they would contemplate leaving the country under the same circumstances. The findings suggest that the prospect of a Le Pen presidency has prompted concerns among substantial sections of both religious communities, although the survey measures stated intentions rather than actual migration plans.

Le Pen, a leading figure in France’s National Rally party, has long advocated stricter immigration policies and tighter restrictions on certain expressions of Islam in public life. Her proposals have included broader restrictions on Islamic veiling, which she has argued are necessary to protect French secularism and national identity.

According to the Ifop survey, 81 per cent of Muslim respondents believe discrimination and hostility towards their community would increase if Le Pen became president. The findings reflect fears that policies introduced under a National Rally government could affect religious expression, social inclusion and the everyday experiences of Muslims living in France.

However, the survey records respondents’ expectations about a possible future government; it does not establish what policies would ultimately be enacted or how their effects would unfold.

The survey’s findings among Jewish respondents add another dimension to the political debate. Although Le Pen and the National Rally have increasingly presented themselves as defenders of Jewish communities against antisemitism, 44 per cent of Jewish respondents said they would consider leaving France if she won the presidency.

The result suggests that concerns about a potential change of government are not limited to one religious community. It is important, however, not to assume that all Jewish or Muslim residents share the same political views or reasons for considering emigration. Individual concerns can differ, and the survey does not establish a single explanation for every respondent’s answer.

The survey also revealed broader divisions within French society over religious expression in public spaces.

According to Ifop, 53 per cent of respondents opposed the wearing of Islamic headscarves in public streets, while 75 per cent supported banning abayas in public secondary schools. Another 72 per cent backed prohibiting conspicuous religious symbols during sporting competitions.

France’s approach to laïcité, or state secularism, has been a recurring source of political debate. Supporters of stricter restrictions argue that they protect the country’s secular principles, while critics warn that some measures disproportionately affect religious minorities.

The survey’s findings illustrate how questions of religion, identity and national belonging are likely to remain important issues during the 2027 presidential campaign.

The results arrive as France prepares for a closely watched presidential election in which immigration, national identity, security and religious freedom are expected to feature prominently.

Le Pen’s National Rally has sought to broaden its appeal beyond its traditional support base, while opponents have warned that its policies could deepen divisions within French society. The survey provides an indication of how different groups perceive the possibility of a National Rally presidency. It does not, however, predict the election result or demonstrate that respondents who say they might leave will actually do so.

The findings nevertheless raise important questions about public confidence, social cohesion and the relationship between government policy and the sense of belonging among France’s religious minorities.

The Ifop survey has highlighted significant concerns among Muslim and Jewish respondents about the possibility of Marine Le Pen becoming France’s next president. With 46 per cent of Muslim respondents and 44 per cent of Jewish respondents saying they would consider leaving the country under such a scenario, the findings point to deep divisions over France’s political direction and its approach to religious identity.

As the 2027 election approaches, debates over secularism, discrimination and national identity are likely to remain central to the country’s political conversation.