Lancet Commission Identifies 17 Global Threats That Could Endanger Humanity by 2100

A new report from The Lancet has identified 17 major threats that could seriously endanger human health and survival by the year 2100, warning that nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI) carry the potential to cause human extinction.

The findings come from the Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health, an international group of experts examining risks across 204 countries and territories. The report was published in October 2026 and presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany.

Although the report highlights the scale of the dangers, its message is not that humanity is destined to disappear. Instead, the researchers argue that governments, businesses and international organisations can reduce the risks through coordinated action, investment and stronger preparedness.

The Commission singled out two threats as having the potential to cause human extinction: nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence.

A large-scale nuclear war could cause immediate mass casualties, destroy critical infrastructure and disrupt food production worldwide. The consequences could extend far beyond the countries directly involved, with atmospheric changes potentially triggering a prolonged reduction in global temperatures and agricultural output, a scenario commonly known as nuclear famine.

The report also raises concerns about malicious AI applications, including the potential development of dangerous biological agents, the disruption of critical infrastructure and the use of increasingly autonomous systems in ways that threaten human safety.

The researchers acknowledge considerable uncertainty surrounding these risks. Their inclusion does not mean that extinction is inevitable or that either outcome is certain to occur by 2100. Rather, the potential consequences are severe enough to warrant preventive action.

Beyond nuclear conflict and malicious AI, the Commission identified 15 additional threats that could cause enormous losses of healthy life over the coming decades.

These are:

• Air pollution
• Antimicrobial resistance
• Childhood malnutrition
• Climate change
• Conventional armed conflict
• Declining development assistance for health
• High alcohol consumption
• High blood pressure
• Income inequality
• Low educational attainment
• Naturally occurring pandemics
• Obesity
• Poor mental health
• Smoking
• Unhealthy ageing

The risks range from existing public health problems to large-scale environmental, technological and security challenges. The Commission stresses that they are interconnected: for example, climate change can worsen food insecurity, while inequality can limit access to healthcare and protection during emergencies.

The Commission assessed hundreds of potential threats before selecting 17 for detailed analysis. It used disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs, to estimate the burden of illness, disability and premature death that could potentially be prevented through effective intervention.

For a threat to qualify as catastrophic under the Commission’s framework, it had to meet a threshold of at least one billion DALYs by 2100, have sufficient evidence for modelling and offer opportunities for meaningful policy action. The report compared plausible best-case and worst-case scenarios to show how much harm could be avoided.

The researchers argue that treating each risk as a separate problem can leave important connections overlooked. Preparedness for pandemics, for instance, depends not only on healthcare capacity but also on scientific innovation, international cooperation and effective public institutions.

Professor Christopher JL Murray, co-chair of the Commission and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, emphasised that humanity retains the ability to act and that decisions made today will shape the health and wellbeing of future generations. <Cite refs={[“turn945954search0″,”turn945954search5”]}/>

The Commission recommends three broad areas of action.

First, strengthen preparedness. Countries need health systems capable of responding to pandemics and other emergencies, supported by effective planning, early-warning systems and resilient infrastructure.

Second, invest in breakthrough innovation. Scientific research, new technologies and improved prevention strategies could help reduce the impact of diseases, environmental threats and emerging security risks.

Third, improve monitoring of emerging dangers. Governments and international institutions need to track changing risks, share information and regularly reassess their responses as new evidence becomes available.

The Commission also stresses the importance of cooperation across health, finance, climate, defence and technology sectors, since many of the threats extend well beyond traditional healthcare concerns.

The report paints a serious picture of the challenges facing the world, but it also highlights opportunities to prevent avoidable suffering.

Some of the threats, including smoking, high blood pressure and malnutrition, already cause substantial harm. Others, such as nuclear conflict and the malicious use of AI, involve greater uncertainty but could have far-reaching consequences if they materialise.

The researchers’ argument is that governments and institutions should not wait for a crisis to become unavoidable before responding. Early investment, stronger international cooperation and continued assessment of emerging risks can help reduce the likelihood and impact of catastrophic events.