Canada War-Games Response to Potential U.S. Invasion Amid Rising Tensions

Canada’s military has modelled how the country could respond to a hypothetical invasion by the United States, an extraordinary scenario that reflects growing tensions between the two longtime allies.

The planning, reported by The Globe and Mail in January 2026, considers how Canada might respond if American forces launched a military incursion. The report cited two senior Canadian government officials familiar with the scenario. Officials stressed that an invasion remains highly unlikely.

The issue returned to international attention in September and October after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged that he had considered the possibility of U.S. military action against Canada as part of his responsibility to assess national security risks.

Carney described the possibility as an “extreme tail risk,” explaining that preparing for unlikely but potentially devastating events is part of responsible risk management.

According to reporting by The Globe and Mail, Canadian military planners have examined how the country might respond if U.S. forces launched an attack from the south. The scenario assumes that Canada’s conventional military capabilities would be insufficient to repel a much larger American force in a direct confrontation. Instead, the model considers unconventional resistance and efforts to make an occupation difficult.

The reported options include irregular defensive tactics, drone warfare and seeking assistance from international partners, particularly the United Kingdom and France. These details come from officials familiar with the modelling and do not constitute an announced operational plan.

The exercise illustrates how military planners assess even highly improbable threats, rather than evidence that Canada expects an attack to happen.

Relations between Ottawa and Washington have come under pressure during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second administration.

Trump has repeatedly referred to Canada as a potential “51st state” and used trade pressure as part of his dealings with the country. His comments, alongside disputes over tariffs and national sovereignty, have contributed to concern among Canadian officials and the public.

The two countries remain deeply connected through trade, defence cooperation and shared continental security arrangements. They also work together through the North American Aerospace Defense Command, known as NORAD, which coordinates aerospace warning and defence for North America.

Despite the tensions, U.S. officials have not announced plans to invade Canada, and military experts cited in recent reporting have described such an attack as highly improbable.

Carney’s comments have reinforced the debate over how Canada should prepare for an uncertain international environment. In an interview with The New York Times published in September 2026, the prime minister said he had examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action but declined to discuss the details of his assessment.

Canadian Defence Minister David McGuinty has also noted that militaries routinely analyse a range of risk scenarios. Other political figures have cautioned that publicly discussing an invasion could increase tensions rather than ease them. The debate reflects the challenge facing Canadian leaders: preparing for severe but unlikely scenarios while maintaining essential relationships with their closest neighbour and defence partner.

Canada and the United States have long cooperated on defence, intelligence and economic activity. A military conflict between them would represent a profound rupture in that relationship, with consequences extending across North America and the wider international system.

Canada’s planning therefore highlights the importance of national preparedness, military readiness and diplomatic cooperation, even when the scenario being examined is remote. For now, the reported war-gaming remains a contingency exercise. It does not mean an invasion is imminent, and there is no publicly confirmed evidence that Washington has ordered preparations to attack Canada.