AI Could Double U.S. GDP Growth to 4% Next Year – Elon Musk

Elon Musk has predicted that artificial intelligence could roughly double U.S. economic growth next year, taking the pace from around 2% to about 4%, or potentially even higher.

Musk made the forecast in a post on X on September 18, writing that his estimate was that AI could “roughly” double U.S. GDP growth next year. He did not provide detailed assumptions or a specific economic model behind the projection.

The prediction is significantly higher than the latest outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Fed policymakers’ September projections put median real GDP growth at 2.4% in 2027, while their projection for 2026 stands at 2.3%. Individual 2027 forecasts from Fed officials range from 2% to 2.9%.

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, according to data cited in recent economic reports.

Musk’s prediction comes as companies continue pouring enormous amounts of money into AI chips, data centres and computing infrastructure.

Analysts cited by Reuters estimate that U.S. AI-related capital expenditure could reach roughly 3% of GDP annually from 2027 through 2029, compared with about 0.6% three years earlier. Moody’s analysts have also estimated that U.S. technology companies could spend nearly $1 trillion on chips and data centres in 2027.

The economic impact, however, depends on whether that investment translates into significant productivity gains across the wider economy. Businesses are increasingly using AI for software development, research, customer service and other tasks, but the timing and scale of those productivity gains remain uncertain.

Musk’s 4% figure remains his own forecast rather than the consensus economic outlook. Higher interest rates and the enormous cost of AI infrastructure are among the factors that could affect how quickly businesses adopt the technology. At the same time, rapid improvements in AI systems and broader use of AI agents could potentially increase output per worker.

The gap between Musk’s prediction and the Federal Reserve’s current projection highlights the uncertainty surrounding AI’s eventual impact on the U.S. economy. For now, the 4% figure represents Musk’s view of what AI could deliver in 2027, rather than an established forecast for U.S. economic growth.