Nigeria’s oil revenue declined by 22% to ₦3.9 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant shortfall from budget expectations, according to the Budget Implementation Report released by the Budget Office of the Federation (BOF).
The report revealed that the country earned ₦3.91 trillion in gross oil revenue during the period, a drop of ₦1.09 trillion (21.82%) compared to the prorated quarterly budget estimate. The figure also represented a ₦714.61 billion (15.46%) decrease from the ₦4.62 trillion generated in the third quarter of 2024.
Despite this decline, Q4 performance showed a remarkable year-on-year improvement of ₦2.02 trillion (107.23%) compared to ₦1.89 trillion recorded in the same period of 2023.
According to the Budget Office, Royalties (Oil & Gas) accounted for ₦2.18 trillion, surpassing the quarterly projection of ₦1.61 trillion by ₦578.73 billion (36.04%). Concessional Rentals also outperformed expectations, reaching ₦5.59 billion against a ₦2.18 billion target — an increase of 156.15%. Miscellaneous Revenue, which includes pipeline fees and other charges, stood at ₦8.79 billion, more than double the ₦4.02 billion projected.
The report further disclosed that Gas Flared Penalties and Exchange Gains, which had no budgetary projections, contributed ₦108.54 billion and ₦1.22 trillion, respectively, during the quarter.
However, the report noted that key revenue streams underperformed. Crude Oil and Gas Sales brought in ₦335.69 billion, below the ₦366.09 billion estimate by 8.3%. Petroleum Profit and Gas Taxes generated ₦1.25 trillion, falling short of the ₦2.99 trillion target by 58.27%. Similarly, Incidental Oil Revenue (Royalty Recovery & Marginal Field) came in at ₦15.57 billion, missing the ₦26.25 billion projection by 40.7%.
The Budget Office attributed the shortfall to lower-than-expected crude oil production levels and market volatility, which continue to pose challenges to Nigeria’s revenue performance.
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