Goldman Sachs Forecasts Brent Crude Prices Could Drop to Low $50s by 2026 Amid Oil Surplus

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has projected that Brent crude oil prices could fall to the low $50s per barrel by late 2026 as global supply begins to outpace demand. The forecast, released in a client note and reported by Reuters on Tuesday, cites a significant increase in oil surplus starting next year.

According to Goldman, the oil surplus is expected to widen and average about 1.8 million barrels per day between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2026. This could result in a buildup of nearly 800 million barrels in global inventories by the end of 2026.

The bank further estimated that oil stored in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will account for one-third of global stocks — around 270 million barrels — by 2026. Combined with weaker demand across OECD economies, this is expected to push Brent’s fair value down from its current mid-$70s level.

Goldman Sachs noted that Brent crude prices are likely to remain close to forward contract levels throughout 2025 before slipping below them in 2026 as OECD stockpiles expand. However, if Chinese stockpiling accelerates — rising to 0.8 million barrels per day from the current 0.4 million — Brent’s 2026 average could increase by $6 per barrel, lifting prices to about $62.

As of early Wednesday trading in Asia, Brent crude futures were at $67 a barrel, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures stood at $63.