Oil Prices Slide Ahead of OPEC+ Decision and Iran-Israel Ceasefire

Global oil prices edged lower on Monday as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of another OPEC+ production increase in August helped stabilize supply outlooks. The market shift comes amid ongoing concerns about uncertain global demand, particularly in the wake of volatile developments in recent weeks.

Brent crude futures fell by 12 cents, or 0.18%, trading at $67.65 per barrel by 07:18 GMT, just ahead of the August contract’s expiry. The more active September contract also slipped, dropping 24 cents to $66.56. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 36 cents, or 0.55%, at $65.16 a barrel.

The recent pullback follows a sharp spike in oil prices triggered by a 12-day conflict that began on June 13, when Israel launched strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Tensions between the two regional powers initially sent Brent prices soaring past $80 per barrel.

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However, prices retreated swiftly after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, helping to deflate the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into the market.

“The market has stripped out most of the geopolitical risk premium built into the price following the Iran-Israel ceasefire,” noted Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Markets, in a research note.

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In addition to the easing of geopolitical threats, market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for July 6. The alliance of oil-producing nations is expected to announce another production increase — its fifth monthly hike since April, as it continues to unwind earlier supply cuts.

While the improved supply outlook offers some relief, persistent uncertainties around global oil demand — including China’s economic recovery and interest rate trends in major economies — continue to weigh on the market’s long-term direction.

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