U.S. Stock Index Futures Dip Ahead of Key Economic Data, Earnings, and Trade Policy Uncertainty

U.S. stock index futures slipped lower on Monday as investors braced for a pivotal week packed with critical economic data, major corporate earnings, and ongoing developments in the Trump administration’s trade policies. Despite last week’s gains across major indexes, uncertainty continues to cloud market sentiment.

According to Reuters, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all ended last week on a positive note. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 small-cap index recorded its strongest week since November, fueled by signs that the U.S. and China might be moving toward easing trade tensions.

However, conflicting statements from Beijing and President Donald Trump have left investors on edge, trying to navigate the unpredictable landscape of global trade disruptions.

“Even though work on multiple bilateral trade deals is continuing and some rapprochement between China and the U.S. is expected, high uncertainty remains,” said Susannah Streeter, Head of Money and Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.

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This week is set to be a busy one on Wall Street, with 180 S&P 500 companies slated to report quarterly results. The spotlight will shine brightly on the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms.

So far, earnings season has been relatively upbeat. Analysts at LSEG IBES now project a 9.7% growth in S&P 500 earnings for Q1 compared to last year — a notable improvement from the 8% gain estimated at the start of April. Among the 179 S&P 500 companies that have already reported, about 72.6% have surpassed analysts’ expectations.

Still, several companies, including Procter & Gamble, have revised down their annual forecasts due to tariff-related uncertainty. Others, such as American Airlines, have withdrawn their annual profit guidance entirely, citing the unstable trade environment.

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Investors are also closely watching critical economic releases this week, including the monthly U.S. payrolls report, GDP data, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. These figures will offer valuable insights into how new tariffs are impacting economic growth, inflation, and the labor market.

Meanwhile, a majority of economists polled by Reuters believe the risk of a global recession this year remains high, largely attributing this to the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on business sentiment.

Adding to the economic landscape, DHL Express announced plans to resume global business-to-consumer shipments valued over $800 to individuals in the United States, signaling a potential easing of some trade restrictions.

As of 6:55 a.m. ET on Monday:

• Dow E-minis were down 88 points (-0.22%),
• S&P 500 E-minis fell 17.75 points (-0.32%),
• Nasdaq 100 E-minis dropped 61.5 points (-0.31%).

This week also marks 100 days since Donald Trump’s inauguration. The initial post-election rally, driven by hopes for pro-business policies and deregulation, has lost momentum.

Since Trump’s election in November, the S&P 500 has fallen over 4%, and is down more than 10% from its February peak, as markets reassess the real-world impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty.

“The hope for a Trump bump for the economy threatens to become a slump, with recession fears swirling, and America’s reputation for stability set to stay under pressure,” noted Susannah Streeter.