Despite its abundant natural resources, Nigeria is at risk of seeing more of its citizens fall into extreme poverty by 2027, according to the latest Africa’s Pulse report from the World Bank. The report was released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, D.C.
Sub-Saharan Africa continues to hold the unfortunate title of having the highest rate of extreme poverty in the world, the report reveals. An alarming 80% of the world’s 695 million people living in extreme poverty were in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2024.
In contrast, other regions like South Asia (8%), East Asia and the Pacific (2%), the Middle East and North Africa (5%), and Latin America and the Caribbean (3%) are seeing significantly lower shares.
Within the region, just four countries accounted for half of the 560 million people living in extreme poverty in 2024 — and Nigeria is one of them.
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It may come as a surprise to many that nations with substantial natural wealth, such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), are projected to see rising poverty rates.
These two countries, classified as both resource-rich and fragile, are expected to experience a 3.6 percentage point increase in extreme poverty between 2022 and 2027.
The report explains that resource wealth, when combined with political fragility or conflict, often leads to worse development outcomes. In 2024, countries in this category had an average poverty rate of 46% — significantly higher than the 33% observed in non-fragile but resource-rich nations.
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This trend stands in stark contrast to the progress seen in non-resource-rich, non-fragile African countries, which have recorded the most significant poverty reduction gains since 2000. These countries managed to close the poverty gap with their non-resource-rich peers by 2010.
While rural areas still house most of Africa’s population and bear the brunt of extreme poverty, the World Bank notes that urbanisation could be a powerful tool for reducing poverty — if managed properly.
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Between 2010 and 2019, most of the progress in reducing poverty came not from within rural or urban zones, but rather through rural-to-urban migration. By 2020, only 41% of the continent was urbanised, but this figure is expected to soar, with over 238 million new urban dwellers projected by 2035 — surpassing the rural population for the first time.
However, this urban shift comes with a major caveat: its success hinges on the ability of cities to provide jobs, infrastructure, and essential services. Without these, rapid urbanisation could exacerbate poverty instead of alleviating it.
Nigeria’s position is especially precarious. As Africa’s most populous nation and one of its largest economies, it continues to struggle with the paradox of wealth and widespread poverty.
Mismanagement, insecurity, corruption, and overreliance on oil have left millions vulnerable — and without decisive reforms and investment in inclusive growth, the country may be heading toward a deeper humanitarian crisis.
The World Bank’s warning is a sobering reminder: natural resources alone do not guarantee prosperity. As the world looks ahead to 2027, Nigeria must take urgent steps to address structural weaknesses, invest in human capital, and build resilient institutions.
With the right leadership and focus on sustainable development, there’s still time to change course. But the clock is ticking.
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