Nigeria’s Oil Exports in Limbo as Unsold Crude Threatens Economic Stability

Nigeria, Africa’s top oil producer, is facing a worrying scenario as a large volume of its crude oil remains unsold just weeks before scheduled shipments.

With over 80 million barrels of oil — including popular blends like Bonny Light, Forcados, Qua Iboe, and Escravos — still searching for buyers for April and May 2025, the country’s already strained economy is bracing for deeper financial trouble.

The energy sector, which is the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, has been battling persistent headwinds, from underinvestment and theft to global market volatility.

But this growing backlog of unsold oil cargoes could push Nigeria closer to a fiscal cliff, especially as the country relies heavily on oil exports for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings.

What’s especially troubling is that even lesser-known grades like Djeno, Girassol, and Mostarda have joined the unsold pile — painting a grim picture of waning demand for African crude on the international market.

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Several factors are contributing to this oil logjam. One of the most significant is shifting global trade alliances, particularly Indonesia’s recent pivot towards U.S. energy supplies.

Indonesia’s Minister of Energy, Bahlil Lahadalia, announced plans to sign $10 billion worth of crude oil and LPG import contracts with the U.S., part of a strategic move to strengthen trade ties and avoid stiff tariffs.

The initiative is designed to help Indonesia maintain a favorable trade balance with the U.S. by importing an estimated $19 billion worth of American goods, which would include oil and gas.

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While this makes economic sense for Indonesia, it’s a big blow to Nigeria. In 2023, Nigeria exported $3.8 billion worth of crude oil and gas to Indonesia, making it one of the Asian nation’s top energy suppliers alongside Saudi Arabia and Angola. With the shift in buying preferences, both Nigeria and Angola now face a potential loss of a crucial market.

Oil prices have seen modest gains recently, thanks to hopeful signs of a cooling trade war between the U.S. and China, as well as possible policy shifts from the Federal Reserve.

• Brent crude rose by 43 cents to $67 per barrel but is still on track for a 1.4% weekly decline.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, climbed slightly to $63.21 per barrel but is also expected to fall by 2.3% for the week.

While any upward movement in prices might seem like good news, the broader outlook remains cloudy. Concerns over global oversupply, weak demand, and a strengthening U.S. dollar continue to apply downward pressure on oil markets. Even OPEC+ is starting to express worry over the persistent softness in global demand.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s comments on ongoing trade negotiations with China gave a slight boost to market sentiment, but it’s not nearly enough to reverse the broader trend of caution and declining appetite for crude.

For a country like Nigeria — where oil accounts for over 90% of export earnings — the stakes couldn’t be higher. With half of its scheduled shipments still sitting unsold and key markets like Indonesia pulling away, Nigeria’s 2025 revenue forecasts are under serious threat.

The government may be forced to rethink its reliance on oil exports and accelerate efforts to diversify the economy. But in the short term, fiscal pressures will likely intensify, affecting everything from budget implementation to foreign reserves and the value of the naira.

The global oil landscape is changing fast, and Nigeria finds itself caught in the storm. Whether it can weather the economic fallout from unsold crude and shifting trade dynamics remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the era of easy oil money is rapidly fading, and urgent reforms are needed to secure a more resilient future for Africa’s largest economy.