Nigeria’s crude oil production took a hit in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting the impact of global price volatility and waning international demand as trade tensions intensify.
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), daily crude oil output averaged 1.40 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March — a decline from 1.465 mbpd recorded in February.
The year had started on a slightly positive note, with production reaching 1.5 mbpd in January, briefly exceeding the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota for Nigeria. However, that momentum quickly reversed. By March, production had dropped to 1.49 mbpd, falling below expectations.
When condensates are factored in, total oil production (crude plus condensate) dropped from 1.78 mbpd in January to 1.67 mbpd in February, and further down to 1.603 mbpd in March.
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NUPRC highlighted that March’s peak production reached 1.76 million barrels of oil per day (bopd), while the lowest dipped to 1.49 million bopd. The monthly average stood at 1,603,776 bopd — made up of 1,400,783 bopd in crude oil and 202,993 bopd in condensates. This figure represents just 93% of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd.
Despite setting a target of 2 mbpd in its 2025 national budget, Nigeria continues to struggle with hitting its OPEC-assigned production levels — a challenge largely attributed to crude theft, pipeline vandalism, and operational setbacks. Yet, optimism remains within the government.
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has maintained that Nigeria could still ramp up production to as high as 3 mbpd within the year.
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However, recent developments in the oil market may complicate that ambition. Crude prices have fallen more than $10 below the government’s 2025 benchmark of $75 per barrel. As of Sunday, Brent crude was trading at $64.76, briefly rising to $65 early Monday before sliding again to $64.99 by 9:00 AM WAT.
Adding to the challenge is sluggish global demand for Nigerian crude. A recent report by Argus Media revealed that Nigerian oil grades were struggling to attract buyers during April’s trading cycle.
The report noted that at least 15 cargoes scheduled to load in April had yet to find buyers, largely due to competition from cheaper alternatives such as U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Caspian CPC Blend, and various Mediterranean grades — all of which have proven more attractive to European refiners.
As the trading cycle moves into May, Nigeria faces a tough balancing act: managing internal production challenges while navigating an increasingly competitive and uncertain global market. With ambitious budget targets and fluctuating oil prices, the months ahead will test the resilience and adaptability of Africa’s largest oil producer.
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